The waning base effect being 8.4 per cent growth in the second quarter of FY22 would have pushed down the July-September number this year. The central bank in its latest monthly economic review released during last week said, “If this is realised, India is on course for a growth rate of about 7 per cent in 2022-23”
The India economy witnessed a probable growth of 6.2 to 7.2 per cent in the September quarter from the previous year. It is lifted by a pick-up in services and government capital spending along with high pre-festive season production, according to economists’ survey.
The median of the ten economists’ forecasts for the quarter was reported at 6.45 per cent. The Gross domestic product (GDP) surged 13.5 per cent in the first quarter of FY23, boosted by the low base from last year.
The waning base effect being 8.4 per cent growth in the second quarter of FY22 would have pushed down the July-September number this year. The official national income data for the second quarter will be out on 30 November.
Hotels, Transport led Rebound
According to DBS the has estimated growth during the September quarter is 6.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has recorded it between 6.1 to 6.3 per cent.
The central bank in its latest monthly economic review released during last week said, “If this is realised, India is on course for a growth rate of about 7 per cent in 2022-23.”
The most high-frequency indicators which includes retail credit growth, vehicle sales, freight traffic and goods and services tax (GST) collections, indicated better demand dynamics in the quarter. Also. it benefited from pre-festive inventory stocking.
The India Ratings sees 7.2 per cent growth in the quarter, the highest according to a media house survey.
As per analysts, the resilient domestic backdrop and pent-up demand continued to prop up India’s growth. The external headwinds surges through the quarter, especially in the tertiary sector.