GDP Likely To Grow By 9.2% In FY22: SBI

Cases have been rising significantly in India as well as across the globe. However, studies so far reveal that the current Omicron variant is less severe than the Delta variant, the report mentioned.

Amid the economic recovery, the State Bank of India (SBI) on Saturday said that India is expected to witness GDP growth at 9.2 percent and the GVA growth estimate is 8.6 percent. Nominal GDP growth is whopping at 17.6 percent.  

According to the SBI report, this is the second-highest nominal growth achieved with 19.9 percent nominal growth registered in 2010-11 and 17.1 percent growth in 2006-07. 

The report also indicated that the overall GDP growth is 1 percent above the pre-pandemic level (FY20). Almost all sectors except ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broad- casting’ (which are still 8 percent below the pre-pandemic level) reached the pre-pandemic level.  

On the expenditure side, private final consumption expenditure is still 3 percent below the pre-pandemic level. The additional spending announced by the government in early Dec’21 fiscal deficit of the centre still comes at Rs 15.88 lakh crore or 6.8 percent of the GDP. For FY23, the fiscal consolidation should remain limited to 30-40 bps from the current fiscal, it said. 

Cases have been rising significantly in India as well as across the globe. However, studies so far reveal that the current Omicron variant is less severe than the Delta variant. Data also substantiate this fact, the report mentioned further. 

SBI business activity index is at its all-time high of 114.6 for the week ended 3 Jan’21, indicating that economic activity is not getting affected by the sudden bout of infections. The index has been above the pre-Covid level since mid-Jul ’21 barring some minor exceptions.

“Going forward, we believe even if the rising infections could impact mobility, yet economic activity is not expected to get affected much,” the report mentioned.