Outlook Market

India will soon surpass Japan and Germany and will have the world’s third largest economy by 2027, end of this decade the Outlook Market 2023 report said

India will soon surpass Japan and Germany and will have the world’s third-largest economy by 2027, said Kotak Mahindra Bank in its report titled Outlook Market 2023.

Amid the geopolitical tension, India is already the fastest-growing economy in the world with average 5.5 per cent growth in the gross domestic product over the past decade, it said.

As per the report, the estimated GDP of India could more than double from USD 3.5 trillion today to surpass USD 7.5 trillion by 2031.

The report mentioned that there is a commendable strength in the Indian economy despite four consecutive equity market shocks, Covid-19, high inflation, geo-political conflict and high-interest rates. 

It added that cyclical upturn, capex recovery and manufacturing tailwinds aided the Indian economy.

The future of the Indian economy depends on the favourable environmental policy, change in global supply, the impact of PLI schemes and government’s infrastructure expenditure,” according to the report.

“With a post-strong earnings growth of 40 per cent in FY 2022, the net profit of the Nifty, 50 Index is expected to grow by 10.8 per cent in FY 2023, 16.3 per cent in FY 2024 and 15.5 per cent in FY 2025,” as per the report.

Despite the geopolitics and surging inflation, the Indian rupee gained appreciation against a wide basket of currencies. It signified that depreciation in the rupee has been less than the relative inflation differential.

The report claimed a bumpy ride to gold in 2022 eventually dragging silver into the league, like most other commodities, these precious metals hit an all-time high at the onset of the Russia- Ukraine war.

Gold in the international market is expected to trade in a range of USD 1670-2000/oz with a positive bias in 2023.

Silver hit a high of nearly USD 27.5/oz in early March and the demand outlook for silver remains solid amid the global green energy push and boost in industrial demand.

Meanwhile, 2022 was all about high inflation, the report suggests 2023 may provide investment opportunities on equity and other assets such as debt, real estate, or gold with an expected decent return in the coming two to three years.

The report mentioned that moderate global growth in 2022 was due to high inflation, slow trade and tight financial conditions.

It reported the global equity market completely sidelined the relevant variables and focused on one trick variable, reopening in China, growth in India and US federal funds terminal rate.   

These variables are expected to not swamp the current market narratives, the report stated.